What’s News In Business Cycles

نویسندگان

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
  • Mart́ın Uribe
چکیده

In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and preferences featuring a parameter governing the strength of the wealth elasticity of labor supply. Business cycles are assumed to be driven by permanent and stationary neutral productivity shocks, permanent and stationary investment-specific shocks, government spending shocks, wage-markup shocks, and preference shocks. Each of these driving forces is buffeted by three types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated four or eight quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than half of predicted aggregate fluctuations. (JEL E32, E13, C11, C51)

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تاریخ انتشار 2000