What’s News In Business Cycles
نویسندگان
چکیده
In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and preferences featuring a parameter governing the strength of the wealth elasticity of labor supply. Business cycles are assumed to be driven by permanent and stationary neutral productivity shocks, permanent and stationary investment-specific shocks, government spending shocks, wage-markup shocks, and preference shocks. Each of these driving forces is buffeted by three types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated four or eight quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than half of predicted aggregate fluctuations. (JEL E32, E13, C11, C51)
منابع مشابه
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